Portfolio launch and first trades

I launched the new $100k portfolio a couple of days early because the market is closed on Jan 1st and I had a bit of free time. Also, it was a bit of a down day, which some may say “wouldn’t it be better to wait for an up day?” To which I say, would it? If I start after an up day it means I just missed out on some up, no? Anyways, I’m not in the business of predicting the future, I’m in the business of making statistically probable investments and letting time do the rest, and as I always say - time in the market is more important than timing the market.

You can watch the whole webinar here, but long story short is I opened 2 positions which give me the potential to make $2k over the next 2 years with >75% probability, which are costing me $5.5k in margin requirement. So the return on margin is 36%/2 years = 18% annualized. And you might say $2k over 2 years on a $100k portfolio is only 1% annualized, I could get more in a savings account. But dollar cost averaging (explained in this post) is supremely important when starting a new porftolio. Normally I would leave the other $94k in a savings account earning ~4-5%, but I’d like to keep this portfolio as simple as possible as I am using it as a teaching tool more than anything else.

The positions are 2 year short put positions on GOOG and AAPL, far out of the money, with probabilities of 75-80% of making full profit (expiring worthless). If you aren’t 1000% clear on what put options are, I highly recommend checking out this video, which explains put options by using everyday analogies that will make them intuitive to understand.

I will track the portfolio performance weekly in this spreadsheet, and periodically share table/graph screenshots when there are interesting insights. For now here is a screenshot of the portfolio as it exists after the first trades:

First portfolio positions

The positions are very (!!) conservative and have very (!) high probabilities of success:

AAPL short put probabilites

GOOG short put probabilities

I purposely made this post thorough so that it would be as clear as possible for beginners. If additional clarification would be useful I would love to hear in the comments. Also, feel free to sign up below to receive news and updates - I don’t spam.

As we kick off this portfolio and a brand-new year, I’m excited to share this journey with you. Remember, investing isn’t about crystal balls or perfect timing—it’s about making informed, statistically sound decisions and letting time do the heavy lifting. Whether you're here to learn, track progress, or just see how this unfolds, I hope this portfolio becomes a valuable resource. Here’s to a year of steady progress, smart decisions, and plenty of learning along the way!